Where Did the Gold Go?

Where Did the Gold Go?

Gold is one of the rare assets where we can make a reasonable estimate of total supply. According to the World Gold Council, about 216,000 to 220,000 tonnes of gold have been mined over all of human history. Because gold does not rust, decay, or disappear, almost all of it still exists today—locked away as jewelry, bars, coins, or official reserves.

Each year, global mining adds only 3,000–3,500 tonnes, about 1 to 1.5 percent of the existing stock. In practical terms, gold is almost a closed system. What matters is not how much is produced, but who absorbs it—and whether it ever comes back to the market.

That leads to a simple but powerful rule: whoever steadily buys gold and does not sell it eventually gains control over the system, even if they do so quietly.

Gold production today is concentrated in a small group of countries. China has been the world’s largest producer since 2007, mining roughly 350–400 tonnes a year. Russia, Australia, South Africa, and a few others follow. But production alone does not explain what has happened to the global gold stock. The real story begins after the gold leaves the mine.

This is where China becomes central—and where global perception lags reality.

Gold is unlike most commodities because it has a buyer with unlimited patience: central banks. Central banks do not trade gold. They accumulate it and store it. Once gold enters a central bank vault, it effectively disappears from the active trading market. As of 2024, central banks officially hold about 37,000 tonnes of gold, roughly 17 percent of all gold ever mined.

Official rankings suggest the United States dominates this landscape, reporting 8,133 tonnes—by far the largest declared reserve. China, by contrast, officially reports only about 2,300 tonnes. On paper, the gap looks enormous.

But paper is exactly the issue. Americans now claim ownership of roughly 40 percent of all bitcoins ever mined, while China controls close to 20 percent of all the gold ever extracted from the earth. The contrast is not cultural or technological; it is structural. One system maximized financial abstraction and mistook liquidity for control. The other accumulated physical finality. Digital assets depend on continuous operation—markets, power, networks, and law. Gold depends on none of these. When systems compress, accounting claims lose priority and custody asserts itself. What matters then is not who maintains the ledger, but who holds the asset that settles without permission.

The United States last conducted a full audit of its gold reserves in the 1950s. Since then, the reported number has barely changed, despite enormous changes in the global monetary system. The figure may be accurate—but it rests largely on trust.

China operates differently.

Start with domestic production. Over the past two decades, China has mined roughly 7,000–8,000 tonnes of gold. Chinese law prohibits the export of domestically produced gold. Once it is mined, it stays inside the country. That fact alone puts China’s internal gold stock well above its officially reported reserves.

Next come imports. Since the 2008 financial crisis, China has been a steady buyer of gold through global hubs such as London and, most visibly, Switzerland. Swiss customs data show thousands of tonnes of gold flowing east over the past decade. Much of this gold is recast into 1-kilogram bars, the format preferred by Chinese banks and institutions. Analysts who track refinery output and bar flows estimate that 4,000–5,000 tonnes have moved east this way alone.

Then there are bilateral and off-market transactions. China has accepted gold as payment for goods and infrastructure from countries facing sanctions or dollar shortages, such as Iran. It has also reportedly received gold directly or indirectly through energy and weapons trade with Russia. These deals rarely pass through transparent markets and are not captured in official reserve statistics.

Finally, there is domestic absorption. Chinese households are among the largest gold buyers in the world, using gold jewelry and bullion as a parallel savings system. At the same time, state-owned banks, policy banks, and state enterprises hold physical gold on their balance sheets under categories like “bullion” or “precious metals.” These holdings do not appear in central-bank reserve data reported to the IMF.

Put all of this together—domestic mining, Swiss imports, sovereign transactions, gold-for-goods trade, institutional holdings, and household ownership—and a very different picture emerges. Conservative estimates suggest China controls more than 15,000 tonnes of gold. Less conservative, but still plausible, estimates place the number closer to 25,000 tonnes. Including private holdings, China may effectively control over 20 percent of all the gold ever mined on Earth.

Not officially.

Not transparently.

But functionally.

And unlike Western gold, much of this metal is immobile. It is not sitting in ETFs. It is not lent into the market. It does not circulate through bullion banks. It is held—quietly, patiently, and strategically.

The rest of the world, meanwhile, behaves like a pigeon in front of a cat—eyes shut, hoping nothing changes. Yet the implications are profound. A country that can stare down the United States in trade wars, dominate rare-earth supply chains, and still hold enough gold to potentially back a large share of its currency presents a deeply unsettling scenario for the global financial system.

Something has already changed.

For the first time since the age of imperial treasure fleets—since the era of Zheng He—China has accumulated a share of the world’s ultimate monetary asset that rivals historic empires. Not to signal power. Not to trade. But to insulate itself and wait.

Gold hasn’t vanished.

It has simply moved east—and it is unlikely to return anytime soon.

Written By Dhruv Joglekar & Vikas Sehgal

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