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Dhruv Joglekar : Silver in now in the limelight amid new U.S. Tariff Regime and Strong Fundamentals

  Silver in now in the limelight amid new U.S. Tariff Regime and Strong Fundamentals Why Silver Is Capturing Attention 1. Tariff Triggered Safe-Haven Demand New U.S. tariff measures have revived fears of stagflation and disrupted supply chains, prompting investors to seek refuge in precious metals. Gold responded immediately, and silver followed—benefiting not just from its safe-haven status but also its industrial demand profile. (Image source: Reuters) 2. Undervaluation via the Gold–Silver Ratio The gold-to-silver ratio remains historically elevated, pointing to silver’s relative undervaluation. A reversion toward long-term norms often results in silver outperforming. This dynamic is drawing investor interest and inflows. (Image source: Crescat capital) 3. Persistent Supply Deficit For a fifth year running, silver supply (mining plus recycling) fails to meet industrial and investment demand, particularly from sectors like solar and EVs. Disruptions in mining and refining could tighten supply further. 4. Record ETP Inflows In H1 2025, cumulative net inflows into silver ETPs reached 95 million ounces—already surpassing 2024’s totals—with total holdings climbing to 1.13 billion ounces, just 7% below the February 2021 peak. June alone accounted for nearly half of the inflows, the largest monthly surge since the 2021 Reddit-driven rally. 5. Macro Tailwinds Rate Outlook: Ongoing trade-headline volatility and moderation in inflation could prompt the Fed to begin easing later in 2025. Dollar Pressure: Tariff and growth concerns are weighing on the U.S. dollar, bolstering demand for dollar-denominated assets like silver. Sources: Reuters, The Silver Institute, Mining.com, FXStreet, GlobeNewswire, Futunn, CaratX, TrotterInc, InvestingNews and Kitco Written by: Dhruv Joglekar Disclaimer This article is published for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or analysis. The information presented has been sourced from public domains and has not been independently verified. Vasuki Group makes no representations or warranties regarding the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or reliability of the content. Neither Vasuki Group nor its affiliates, directors, employees, or representatives shall be liable for any errors, omissions, or reliance on the information provided. This article does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment, securities transaction, or contractual engagement. Readers should conduct their own due diligence before making any financial decisions. Any views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Vasuki Group. Further, Vasuki Group may hold or take positions in the market that differ from the views expressed in this article. All rights reserved. Vasuki Group reserves the right to update or modify this article at its discretion. For more information, reach out to us on research@vasukiindia.com.

Dhruv Joglekar : Impact of Recent U.S. Tariff Hikes on Indian Metal Exports: A Legal and Economic Perspective

U.S. Tariff Impact on Indian Metal Exports Impact of Recent U.S. Tariff Hikes on Indian Metal Exports: A Legal and Economic Perspective Date: July 2025 The U.S. government’s recent policy actions on metal tariffs have generated discussion across global trade corridors. This article outlines the current tariff environment, assesses potential escalation risks, and evaluates the impact on India’s metal exports to the United States. All data is based on publicly available sources from official trade bodies and media reports. A. Tariff Situation: Then and Now In March 2025, the United States imposed a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports, covering both raw and finished products1. This was subsequently raised to 50% on June 3, 2025. India responded by filing a formal notification at the World Trade Organization (WTO), expressing its intent to impose reciprocal tariffs on certain U.S. goods. B. Outlook: Can Tariffs Increase Further? While the tariffs are now at 50%, the probability of a further increase is considered low. From a policy and diplomatic standpoint, 50% is viewed as a high-water mark in current trade dynamics. Comparable tariffs have been levied on other U.S. trading partners such as Canada, suggesting a level playing field is being maintained5. Analysts also speculate that a potential trade agreement with India could lead to more targeted tariff applications, focusing on specific product categories rather than a flat rate. India also maintains its own protective mechanisms—such as a 12% safeguard duty on select flat steel imports from China—which may mitigate some of the external pressure from U.S. tariffs. C. Trade Exposure: How Important Is the U.S. to Indian Metal Exports? India’s steel exports to the United States are relatively limited, while aluminium exports are more material. Only about 5% of India’s total steel production is exported; of this, roughly 1% goes to the U.S. In contrast, approximately 47% of India’s aluminium production is exported, with the U.S. accounting for 6% of those exports. From the U.S. side, over half of its aluminium imports come from Canada, and only about 3% come from India. For steel, major U.S. import sources include: Canada (23%) Brazil (16%) Mexico (12%) South Korea (10%) In FY25, India exported an estimated USD 4.56 billion worth of iron, steel, and aluminium products to the United States: $587.5 million in iron and steel $860 million in aluminium and related articles $3.1 billion in articles of iron or steel D. Historical Context: Is This a First? No. The aluminium and steel industries have previously been subject to U.S. trade actions. In January 2018, the U.S. administration under President Donald Trump imposed a 10% tariff on aluminium and 25% on steel imports from most countries, excluding Australia. These measures aimed to boost domestic production but were met with mixed results. U.S. aluminium production actually declined after the tariffs. Historically, such tariffs had limited impact on global benchmark prices, including those on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Conclusion While the latest U.S. tariff increases are significant, India’s direct exposure—particularly in steel—is limited. Aluminium exports are more impacted but remain a small part of overall U.S. imports. The situation remains fluid, and upcoming trade negotiations will play a key role in determining the long-term outcome. Sources Reuters – “Trump to sign order doubling metals tariffs” (June 3, 2025) Times of India – India plans retaliatory tariffs under WTO (May 13, 2025) Economic Times – India revises retaliatory duties plan (July 10, 2025) Reuters – “Explainer: The reality of Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs” (June 2, 2025) Moneycontrol – “India may hit back at US with tariffs on almonds, metals” (June 2025) Reuters – “India mulls retaliatory tariffs as US rejects WTO notice” (June 2, 2025) Reuters – “US aluminium premiums hit record levels after tariffs” (June 5, 2025) U.S. Geological Survey – Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 (Aluminium) U.S. Department of Commerce – SIMA Steel Import Reports DGFT India – Export-Import Data FY25 U.S. Federal Register – Proclamation 9704 (January 2018 tariffs) International Aluminium Institute – Primary Production Statistics London Metal Exchange – Historical Aluminium & Steel Price Data Written by: Dhruv Joglekar Disclaimer This article is published for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or analysis. The information presented has been sourced from public domains and has not been independently verified. Vasuki Group makes no representations or warranties regarding the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or reliability of the content. Neither Vasuki Group nor its affiliates, directors, employees, or representatives shall be liable for any errors, omissions, or reliance on the information provided. This article does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment, securities transaction, or contractual engagement. Readers should conduct their own due diligence before making any financial decisions. Any views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Vasuki Group. Further, Vasuki Group may hold or take positions in the market that differ from the views expressed in this article. All rights reserved. Vasuki Group reserves the right to update or modify this article at its discretion. For more information, reach out to us on research@vasukiindia.com.

Deepak Pawar – Navigating Uncertainty: How the Iran-Israel War Threatens India’s Trade Flows

    Navigating Uncertainty: How the Iran-Israel War Threatens India’s Trade Flows Synopsis: The ongoing Iran-Israel conflict poses significant risks to India’s trade, especially due to rising crude oil prices, disruptions in shipping routes, and increased insurance and freight costs. As tensions between Iran and Israel escalate, the economic tremors are being felt far beyond the Middle East. For India—deeply integrated into global trade and heavily reliant on energy and fertilizer imports—the conflict poses serious macroeconomic and sectoral challenges. Disruptions in shipping lanes, rising freight costs, and supply chain vulnerabilities are already beginning to strain key industries. Trade Disruption and Export Exposure In FY2025, India exported goods worth $1.24 billion to Iran and $2.15 billion to Israel, while importing $441.9 million and $1.61 billion from these countries, respectively. However, the broader threat lies in the disruption of key maritime routes. The Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea—which together handle nearly 80% of India’s merchandise trade with Europe and a significant portion of trade with the US—are now under threat. These regions account for 34% of India’s total exports. Map of Strait of Hormuz: Wikipedia Source: commerce.gov.in       Source: Vasuki India – Strategic Research   Risk to Indian Export War risk premiums for containers have surged from $50–$200 to $200–$400. Transit times via the Cape of Good Hope are increasing by 15–20 days, raising freight and insurance costs by a similar margin. India’s exports to Israel have already dropped from $4.5 billion in FY24 to $2.1 billion in FY25, while imports fell from $2.0 billion to $1.6 billion. Sectoral Impact Several of India’s high-performing export sectors are particularly vulnerable: Pharmaceuticals, which rely on stable access to Middle Eastern and North African markets. Textiles and home furnishings, especially to Israel, where margins are 10–15% higher than in the US. Gems and jewellery, electronics, and engineering goods, which face both demand-side risks and supply-side shocks—particularly from disruptions in Israel’s rough diamond exports. Basmati rice exports to Iran, India’s third-largest buyer, are expected to decline. In FY25, India exported ₹6,374 crore worth of Basmati rice to Iran, accounting for 12.6% of total Basmati exports. Fertilizer Sector: A Fragile Supply Chain India’s fertilizer sector is especially exposed due to Iran-Israel war. Nitrogen fertilizers like urea depend on ammonia, derived from natural gas—60% of production costs stem from this input. Phosphorus fertilizers like Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) require phosphate rock and sulphur, while potassium fertilizers rely on potash ore. Global fertilizer Supply: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region supplies over 30% of the world’s nitrogen fertilizers. Iran exports over 16 million tonnes of urea annually. Morocco holds 70% of global phosphate rock reserves. Russia and Belarus account for nearly 40% of global potash capacity. Any disruption in these supply chains—whether from sanctions, shipping delays, or conflict escalation—could trigger a lagged price shock. Within 1.5 to 2 months, fertilizer prices may rise sharply. Farmers, facing higher input costs, may reduce usage, leading to lower agricultural yields. Prices of Di-ammonium Phosphate (DAP) and Urea USD/T on June 17, 2025 Ripple Effects in India The Indian government may be forced to increase fertilizer subsidies, straining the fiscal deficit. If subsidies are not scaled up, food inflation could rise, especially in rural areas. The war could lead to rise in Energy Prices and Inflationary Pressure. The conflict has already pushed Brent crude oil prices to $76 per barrel, with a 12% surge since the escalation began. JPMorgan warns that prices could reach $120 per barrel in a worst-case scenario. A $10 increase in crude oil raises India’s oil import bill by ~ $12–13 billion annually, widening the current account deficit by ~ 0.3% of GDP. The Indian rupee has already weakened to ~ ₹86 per USD, adding to import costs. Higher oil prices could also impact sectors like paints, tyres, cement, and chemicals, which rely on crude derivatives. Written by: Deepak Pawar Disclaimer This article is published for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or analysis. The information presented has been sourced from public domains and has not been independently verified. Vasuki Group makes no representations or warranties regarding the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or reliability of the content. Neither Vasuki Group nor its affiliates, directors, employees, or representatives shall be liable for any errors, omissions, or reliance on the information provided. This article does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment, securities transaction, or contractual engagement. Readers should conduct their own due diligence before making any financial decisions. Any views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Vasuki Group. Further, Vasuki Group may hold or take positions in the market that differ from the views expressed in this article. All rights reserved. Vasuki Group reserves the right to update or modify this article at its discretion. For more information, reach out to us on research@vasukiindia.com.  

Deepak Pawar – India’s 2025 Monsoon Outlook: Foodgrain Output, Sugar Sector Stability, and Evolving Fertilizer Trends

Monsoon Outlook 2025 India’s 2025 Monsoon Outlook: Foodgrain Output, Sugar Sector Stability, and Evolving Fertilizer Trends India is expected to receive above-average rainfall in 2025, with projections at 105% of the long-term average of 868mm. The absence of El Niño conditions and the potential development of La Niña later in the season are contributing to the positive monsoon outlook. While most regions are likely to experience above-normal rainfall, certain areas in northwest, northeast, and southern Peninsular. For more details, please click here . Written by: Deepak Pawar Disclaimer This article is published for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or analysis. The information presented has been sourced from public domains and has not been independently verified. Vasuki Group makes no representations or warranties regarding the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or reliability of the content. Neither Vasuki Group nor its affiliates, directors, employees, or representatives shall be liable for any errors, omissions, or reliance on the information provided. This article does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment, securities transaction, or contractual engagement. Readers should conduct their own due diligence before making any financial decisions. Any views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Vasuki Group. Further, Vasuki Group may hold or take positions in the market that differ from the views expressed in this article. All rights reserved. Vasuki Group reserves the right to update or modify this article at its discretion. For more information, reach out to us on research@vasukiindia.com.

Dhruv Joglekar – INDIA’S PASSIVE FPI OUTFLOWS MAY SOON BOTTOM AS USDINR NEARS 88-89

India’s Passive FPI Outflows May Soon Bottom as USDINR Nears 88-89 INDIA’S PASSIVE FPI OUTFLOWS MAY SOON BOTTOM AS USDINR NEARS 88-89 Summary Passive Foreign Portfolio Investment (“FPI”) outflows from India may soon turn as USDINR moves towards 88-89. Historical trends show a median depreciation of 6.6% in trough-to-peak cycles over the last decade, with an average of 7.9%. If this pattern holds, the rupee could reach 88-89 by Q1 FY26, possibly reversing passive FPI outflows. Historical patterns indicate that major depreciations in USDINR tend to follow phases of appreciation. The most notable depreciation in recent history occurred during the 2013-14 Taper Tantrum when the currency fell by ~16% within 3-4 months after FPI flows peaked at $14.8 billion. A similar decline was seen in 2018 due to trade war concerns, a 100-bps Fed rate hike, and domestic uncertainties linked to GST implementation, resulting in $25 billion in FPI outflows. Given past trends, if current factors affecting the exchange rate persist, USDINR could rise to 88-89 by April-May FY26 based on median bottom-to-peak moves observed in previous years. Cycles of USDINR and FPI flows show average peak depreciation of 8.3% The US Economy and FPI Inflows: A Surprising Correlation Contrary to common belief, a stronger U.S. economy does not necessarily drive capital outflows from India. Analysis of the Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index (CESI) and India’s net FII equity flows since 2014 suggests a 25% positive correlation. Additionally, econometric modeling indicates that a 1% positive surprise in U.S. economic data has historically driven an inflow of approximately $82 million into Indian equities, with a lag of around one month. Growth Surprises in the US are Generally Positive for India Flows Correlation between US 10-Year Bond Yields and Indian (or Emerging) Markets Historical data suggests a strong inverse correlation between U.S. 10-year bond yields and emerging market equities, including India. These asset classes often move in opposite directions, with rising U.S. bond yields drawing capital away from riskier markets. When the U.S. 10-year yield exceeds 4.3% to 4.4%, it often marks an inflection point where investors reallocate funds into U.S. bonds. In September 2024, the U.S. 10-year yield was at 3.6%, but it has since risen to 4.6%. This surge has coincided with significant capital flows into U.S. assets, strengthening the dollar and contributing to large-scale FII outflows from India. A 4.5% risk-free return in U.S. dollars presents an attractive alternative, particularly as emerging markets continue to trade at elevated valuations. US 10-year bond yields and Indian (or emerging) markets have high negative correlation (Source: Vasuki Research) Source: Vasuki Research Conclusion: Volatility Ahead, but Structural Strength Remains Although short-term market conditions remain uncertain, India’s long-term fundamentals continue to provide a solid foundation. Fiscal consolidation efforts, steady forex reserves, and resilient domestic flows support economic stability. While USDINR may weaken to 88-89, the expected reversal in passive FPI flows will be a critical development for investors tracking the evolving macroeconomic environment. For more information, reach out to us at research@vasukiindia.com. Disclaimer This article is published for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or analysis. The information presented has been sourced from public domains and has not been independently verified. Vasuki Group makes no representations or warranties regarding the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or reliability of the content. Neither Vasuki Group nor its affiliates, directors, employees, or representatives shall be liable for any errors, omissions, or reliance on the information provided. This article does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment, securities transaction, or contractual engagement. Readers should conduct their own due diligence before making any financial decisions. Any views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Vasuki Group. Further, Vasuki Group may hold or take positions in the market that differ from the views expressed in this article. All rights reserved. Vasuki Group reserves the right to update or modify this article at its discretion.

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